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ESTIMATING THE EXPECTED COST OF EQUITY CAPITAL USING ANALYSTS’ CONSENSUS FORECASTS Holger Daske/Günther Gebhardt/Stefan Klein In this study, we develop a technique for estimating a .rm’s expected cost of equity capital derived from its stock price and analysts’ consensus earnings forecasts. Our estimation method, which is based on the residual income valuation model, extends and refines currently available approaches by explicitly allowing daily estimation and using only publicly available information at that estimation date. We apply this technique to estimate the expected cost of equity capital at the market, industry and individual firm level, using historical German data from 1989-2002, and to examine firm characteristics that have been systematically related to these estimated return expectations. p. 2 ARE THE VICKREY AUCTION AND THE BDM MECHANISM REALLY INCENTIVE COMPATIBLE? – EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND OPTIMAL BIDDING STRATEGIES IN CASES OF UNCERTAIN WILLINGNESS-TO-PAY Klaus Peter Kaas/Heidrun Ruprecht Willingness-to-pay (WTP) data elicited with the help of incentive compatible methods like the Vickrey auction and the BDM mechanism promise higher validity than stated preferences data and provide more information content than do revealed-preferences data. However, research shows that subjects in a Vickrey auction do not always follow the dominant strategy of bidding their WTP, but frequently bid too high or too low. Although this phenomenon is usually attributed to irrational behavior, that need not be the only explanation. In marketing research applications, subjects are typically asked their WTP for a new product, and it appears that most subjects are uncertain about their exact WTP. We present a modified bidding model to explain that in this case, it is optimal for risk-averse but rational bidders to underestimate, rather than to overestimate, their WTP. The model is supported by preliminary experimental data. p. 37 DE-DIVERSIFICATION ACTIVITIES OF GERMAN CORPORATIONS FROM 1988 TO 2002: PERSPECTIVES FROM AGENCY AND MANAGEMENT FASHION THEORY Alexander T. Nicolai/Thomas W. Thomas In the past, many countries have witnessed de-diversification waves. In this paper we illustrate that the same phenomenon can be observed in Germany. We discuss different theoretical explanations for the occurrence of de-diversification: the predominant agency theory approach and the less common neo-institutionalist/management fashion theory. We present data on 360 divestitures by German corporations between 1988 and 2002 and obtain additional data from a literature database. The results show that management fashions can influence the impact of capital markets. We suggest strengthening the link between finance theory and research in strategy and organization. p. 56 THE IMPACT OF BUSINESS TO CONSUMER E-COMMERCE ON ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, BRAND ARCHITECTURE, IT STRUCTURE, AND THEIR INTERRELATIONS Andreas Strebinger/Horst Treiblmaier Previous research on e-commerce has analyzed its influence on organizational structure, brand management, and IT structure separately. Drawing on transaction cost theory, we analyze the simultaneous impacts of business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce on organizational structure, brand architecture, and IT structure. We survey 49 chief marketing officers (CMOs) and 49 chief information officers (CIOs) of 64 out of the 100 most important consumer brand companies in Austria. We show that the amount of change in all three structural elements increases as the importance they attach to B2C e-commerce grows. Furthermore, the amount of change in both brand architecture and organizational structure and in brand architecture and IT structure are significantly linked to each other, even after we control for the importance of B2C e-commerce. We find mixed results for the hypothesis that higher levels of importance of B2C e-commerce enhance the dependence of the marketing-related IT structure on changes in brand architecture. p. 81 |
Archiv 2012
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